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At the Spot of Crisis and the Security Status / Iran Makes no Disturbance for the United States!

 

 Starting the new term of  IISA, the new board of directors and new round of activities, and within the framework of the IISA serial meetings, the House of Humanists in the Humanities, on Tuesday, July 2, 2019, hosted a team of major professors in political science and international relations and a large number of scholars in the field of relations. The meeting were hold by the IISA and the International & Research Studies Institute of Contemporary Abrar in Tehran titled "Trump and Triple Sanctions, Threats and Confrontations"; attended by Dr. Ebrahim Mottaghi, Dr. Hossein Deheshyar and Dr. Sadeq Zibakhalam.

 

 

The meeting addressed and scrutinized different dimensions and angles of the Trump’s threats on the security and interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran both nationally and regionally.  These days, there is news over US-Iran tensions, and, the trump's “Maximum Pressure” approach and the insistence of radical conservatives in the United States, on pursuing this approach, so, concerns over the military conflict between the two sides has been escalated. Realizing the importance of this critical issue in this moment along with the IISA strategic mission have propelled the Iranian Association for International Relations to invite prominent & distinguished academics and pundits to discuss on the implications of these threats and strategies of containing it.

The Precise Observing and Explaining the Events
At the beginning, Dr. Ziauddin Sabouri, the head of the Iranian International Relations Association, emphasized on the mission of the scientific and specialized institutions in which should closely monitor regional and international developments and identify the opportunities and threats and examine its effects on the national interests of the country; he stated that in order to reach an appropriate strategy to promote national interests & anticipate future developments, the pundits should firstly realize and explain the international issues properly.   
The head of the IISA, also stated the International Relations Association, as a specialized institution, should enjoy of the IR theories in decision-making process based on international realities and events in order to reach a correct decision in foreign policy, basing on national interest.

 

 

At the Spot of Crisis and Security Status

Dr Motaghi, the professor of Tehran University, emphasized that despite various theories in explaining international developments & realities , the most applicable & appropriate theory for the current tensioned status between the  US & Iran could be the John Mearsheimer’s “ Invasive Realism” theory.

Mearsheimer believes that the nature of power is aggressive and dominant. Fundamentally, the Great Powers' approach is on hegemony based and, as far as possible, they try to control the medium and small powers. The focal point in Mearsheimmer's view is if no reactionary and retaliatory behavior take place against the aggressive behavior of the great powers, then this passivity has no justification except the weakness and surrender of the aggressed country.  Therefore, Iran's attempt to target the US drone was a right act in protecting Iran’s security and national interests. It should be noted that the main approach of the United States in dealing with Iran is regime change, and is essentially imposing smart sanctions against the Iranian economy with the goal of overthrowing the Iranian political system.

The other basic point in the US foreign policy towards Iran is the continuity of the Washington sanctions approach. In fact, the Sanctions were maintained even in the JCPOA & the basis of the sanctions against Iran differs a little before and after the JCPOA. The US sanctions against Iran is in a networked way, so we are witnessing and facing the extension, intensity and severity of these sanctions.

Dr. Motaghi also asserted that the possibility of direct confrontation between the two sides is weak, but the US has taken the “strike approach” against Iran. This approach can be done limited outside Iran's borderline boundaries.

The accumulation of wealth at the center of the Trump’s world-view

Dr Dehsyar, the professor of Allameh University in Tehran, focused on the nature of Trump's personality and stated that the Islamic Republic of Iran needs to reach a precise recognition of Trump’s personality. Trump is a strange and, at the same time, a phenomenon in American politics. Almost, the previous 45 presidents of the United States, had two common traits of being politicians or being in politics practically. They have come from the congress and executive bodies, or military. Trump is the only president who has not come from these parts. In the last three years, Trump has shown that the world that he regards politics in terms of trade and economy. However, the commercial outlook of trump is interesting in its kind. Trump earned fortune not from professional channels, such as investment on Wall Street and global exchanges, but on the street including: Casino, restaurant and seafood. These are the source of Trump's revenues. For Trump, the accumulation of wealth is important, and the means to preserve this wealth is in military equipment. This is where he has repeatedly stated that he is not going to go for a direct military conflict. In fact, Trump is looking for a way to earn wealth and bargain. Hence, in the trump worldview, money and wealth are important and he is working on this path. It is unacceptable for him that the US has spent $ 3 trillion for the two wars between Afghanistan and Iraq. Trump is unlikely to seek such a volume of expense for the American economy. Now Trump is looking for an Iranian deal, the country which enjoys three characteristics: the lack of national unity, disconformity with the regional powers, and the normative incompatibility with the international system. Therefore, through sanctions and economic pressure Trump is trying to achieve necessary concessions fromIran.

 

Iran Makes No Disturbance For the US

Speaking at the end of the meeting, Dr. Zibakalam explained the current status of Iran and the United States which is a bit ambiguous and confusing. These days everyone is asking each other whether a war between Iran and the United States is taking place or not? ​​Dr Zibakalam believed i that Iran has no serious harassment affecting the interests of the United States and the US is not seeking a regime change in Iran, at all. On the other hand, reaching an accurate recognition of the relationship between Iran and the United States requires a kind of clever simulation. Dr. Zibakalam posed two issues: first, In case of occurring a presumptivewar between Iran and the United States, Iran enjoys of which kinds of leverage, and on the contrary, the United States enjoys of which kinds of tools for striking Iran? However, Iran, with its proxy forces in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, can seriously blow the interests of the United States its allies in the region, but indeed, this is the United States which has the upper hand as the military super-power & can bring Iran more devastating blows.

Another important point that Dr. Ziyakhalam pointed out was the probability of a war between Iran and the United States in the second round of the Trump presidency. Evidences suggest that Trump is planning to continue his presence at the White House, and in this context, any disputes and military confrontations can shatter Trump's calculations and planning for the 2020 election. Therefore, the whole focus of Trump is to manage the crisis of the conflict with Iran within the next one year or more.

 

 

Source: Public Relation of IISA
Published Date: 1398/05/12 - 18:57
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